Euro defiles gravity after Italy vote.

Price action in the Forex market was decidedly more subdued on the second trading day of the week with most pairs contained to 50 point ranges for most of Asia and European trade.

The EURUSD which made a near 300 points round trip in post Italian referendum trade yesterday, first dropping to low of 1.0504 and spiking to 1.0798, was as much calmer today but remained near the two day highs and within striking distance of the 1.0800 figure. There was little data from the region except EZ GDP figures which came in at 1.7% versus 1.6%, but yesterday's price action suggests that the pair may have made a near term bottom and could continue to squeeze higher even possibly towards the 1.1000 figure especially if ECB President Mario Draghi offers no definitive calendar extensions to the QE program.

Ultimately the euro may be headed to 1.0330 as the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB begins to kick in. But for now the market is still looking for the Fed to affirm its intention to tighten continuously in 2017 rather than the one-and-done December hike that is already priced into the market. Meanwhile if the EURUSD could continue as expectations are adjusted on both sides of the trade.

Elsewhere today, the RBA kept its rates on hold and generally provided a modestly upbeat assessment of the situation on ground, but Aussie drifted lower in the wake of the announcement as it was well anticipated by the market . Meanwhile, the Kiwi took a tumble in Asia dropping sharply below the 0.7100 figure after dealers pulled some bids ahead of the RBA announcement and a spate of spelling triggered a stop avalanche. The unit recovered somewhat in European trade but remains weaker on relative basis ahead of the Diary Auction results due later today.

With only US trade data on the docket, the focus of the market will once again turn to rates. If US yields could creep higher, USDJPY which has been well bid all night could make another run as the psychological key remain 115 level. However, another failure today, could prompt a more serious correction in the pair which has been overbought for days and will need continued support from fixed income market to push higher.

Regards,
Oluranti Owolewa
Technical Analyst
Forexinsaitz

EURGBP a scope to accelerate further.

EURGBP

STRATEGY : BUYING DIPS.

The big story this past week for cable was the Bank of England's decision to combine 25bp rate cut with 60 billion government bond buying program and also a new initiative to buy  10 billion pounds of corporate bonds. This of course sent a strong message to the market which drove sterling down against all the major currencies. The Bank of England gave more than expected because they felt by acting early and comprehensively, the MPC can reduce uncertainty, bolster confidence and support the necessary adjustments in the U.K economy. According to Mark Carney, the central bank felt that the outlook for growth had weakened materially since the Britain's decision to leave the European Union. In all, the Bank of England's outlook is grim which is part of the reason they felt the need to do more than market anticipated. However, the tone of Governor Carney's comments was not overwhelmingly dovish. The central bank is ready to lower the bank rate further if needed and increase all elements of the package but Carney made it clear that the lower bound interest rates is above zero as he is not a fan of negative rates. Carney sees helicopter money as "flight of fancy" and doesn't see a scenario where negative rates is discussed and as such, if they were to ease again, it would be in other ways and perhaps through additional bond purchases. Definitely before additional measures are considered, BOE would like to see the impact of the current stimulus in the economy. With that in mind, cable should still experience some weakness in days ahead especially against the crosses and one of such is the EURGBP.

EURGBP has a window to accelerate higher since completing a potential medium term correction at 0.6930, it's ironically following the same price action as Sterling's exit from the EMR in 1992 into the trend-line from 0.9800 high at 0.8115. This should ideally represent the first leg of a new uptrend. The corrective pullback to 0.7560 could well then have set up a potential acceleration to 0.8750 equality target. However, 0.8100-0.8300 consolidation should set a platform to rally again. However, a loss of 0.7995 would suggest EURGBP is still following the 1992 template with a break back down to 0.7500.